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13 Apr 2015
Spec positioning on oil climbs 43% in past two weeks –
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood, comments that although the CFTC positioning data shows that the long positions on oil has increased 43% in the past two weeks, some caution is warranted as the market is still not away from the bear trend.
Key Quotes
“If you add Easter into the equation the oil price went up last week by a modest 5%, but on the weeks trade only the late rally on Friday pushed crude into positive territory.”
“The reasons are a bit samey, the Iran settlement news is losing traction with every day that passes, now not only is an immediate withdrawal of sanctions expected but apparently IAEA inspections not welcome without which there is no deal. Accordingly, markets are now not pencilling in any Iranian crude arriving any time soon.”
“The second piece of positive news on Friday was a decent rise in the number of rigs lost last week after two rather pathetic figures. The overall rig count was down 40 at 988 and oil lost 42 to 760 which did just enough to give the bulls a few hours in the sun.”
“What they havent worked out yet is that despite the number of rigs halving since October the US production is still 9.4m b/d.”
“Having said all that the CFTC data is showing that ‘specialist market operators’ are calling the price up, last week saw the biggest rise in long positions since 2011. A rise of 52/- lots to 225/- lots is big and the two week rise is 43%, somebody is certainly taking a view.”
“I would change the word from specialist to speculatory and without wanting to be a Jeremiah, say that we are still far from out of the woods.”
Key Quotes
“If you add Easter into the equation the oil price went up last week by a modest 5%, but on the weeks trade only the late rally on Friday pushed crude into positive territory.”
“The reasons are a bit samey, the Iran settlement news is losing traction with every day that passes, now not only is an immediate withdrawal of sanctions expected but apparently IAEA inspections not welcome without which there is no deal. Accordingly, markets are now not pencilling in any Iranian crude arriving any time soon.”
“The second piece of positive news on Friday was a decent rise in the number of rigs lost last week after two rather pathetic figures. The overall rig count was down 40 at 988 and oil lost 42 to 760 which did just enough to give the bulls a few hours in the sun.”
“What they havent worked out yet is that despite the number of rigs halving since October the US production is still 9.4m b/d.”
“Having said all that the CFTC data is showing that ‘specialist market operators’ are calling the price up, last week saw the biggest rise in long positions since 2011. A rise of 52/- lots to 225/- lots is big and the two week rise is 43%, somebody is certainly taking a view.”
“I would change the word from specialist to speculatory and without wanting to be a Jeremiah, say that we are still far from out of the woods.”